Roland Garros begins in late May, and the field is taking shape after a clay season that has thrown up more surprises than usual. The men's draw is genuinely open in a way it has not been in over a decade. The women's side has a clear favorite but a credible chasing pack.
Men's favorites
Carlos Alcaraz remains the marginal favorite, despite an inconsistent clay season. His Madrid title last week was the reminder of his ceiling on this surface. When he is on, he plays the best clay tennis on the men's tour. The questions are about consistency and whether the body holds up across two weeks of best-of-five tennis.
Jannik Sinner is the obvious second favorite. His clay game has improved dramatically in the last 18 months, and he reached the final last year. The fitness and mental concentration he brings to long matches will be tested by the Roland Garros surface, which is heavier and slower than the hardcourts where he is most dominant.
Daniil Medvedev remains the wild card. His clay results have improved each year as he has reluctantly accepted that the surface requires different patterns. He will not win Roland Garros, almost certainly, but he could trouble both Alcaraz and Sinner in a five-set quarterfinal.
The next tier
Casper Ruud has consistently been a Roland Garros semifinalist and could go further this year given the favorites' form variations. Holger Rune's game suits clay but his consistency remains the issue. Lorenzo Musetti has been the most improved clay player on tour and will have a home-soil semi-final aspiration.
The dark horse pick is Alex Zverev, whose game and clay record both suggest he could reach the final, but whose history at the slams has been disappointment after disappointment. If anything is going to break, this might be the year.
Women's favorites
Iga Swiatek is the clear favorite, and the gap between her and the field on clay is wider than at any other slam. Her results in Madrid and Rome will likely confirm what was already true: she is the woman to beat at Roland Garros, and the bracket has to navigate around her, not the other way around.
Aryna Sabalenka has the firepower to trouble anyone but has historically struggled to consistently reach her ceiling on clay. Coco Gauff has made meaningful improvements to her clay game and reached the semifinals last year. Elena Rybakina remains the player most capable of playing through Swiatek if the matchup happens early.
The veterans and the rising stars
The veteran group (Pegula, Jabeur, Ostapenko) all have credible runs in them but probably not the title. The rising stars (the Czech and Russian under-20s who have broken through this clay season) are not at title-contention level yet but will trouble seeded players in the early rounds.
What to actually watch
The men's draw is interesting because there are real reasons to think any of four or five players could win. The women's draw is interesting because the gap between Swiatek and the field is so significant that her every match will feel like an event in itself.
Best matchup to watch: an Alcaraz vs Sinner semifinal would be one of the great recent Roland Garros matches if it happens.