While the Eastern Conference playoff picture remains compressed and chaotic, the Western Conference has done the opposite over the last six weeks. A clear top tier has separated, the play-in race has narrowed, and several teams have effectively been eliminated despite having games left.
The clear top three
Oklahoma City, Denver, and the Lakers have separated as the conference's elite. OKC have the best regular-season record. Denver have the championship-pedigree experience. The Lakers have peaked at the right time after a difficult midseason.
The middle tier scrap
The 4-seed through 7-seed includes Memphis, Minnesota, the Clippers, and Phoenix in some order. The seeding will matter enormously for first-round matchups against the top three. Each of these teams has been within two games of each other for most of April.
The play-in survivors
Sacramento, Golden State, and Dallas are the most likely 8-9-10 trio. New Orleans remain mathematically alive. The play-in tournament should produce competitive games, with one of these teams likely advancing to face the top seed.
The likely finalist
Western Conference Finals projection: OKC vs Denver. Both will likely face challenges in earlier rounds, but their combined depth and roster construction makes them the obvious bracket favorites. The Lakers are the most likely team to disrupt that.